Unusual Weather Prognosticators: Folklore Forecast On Spring Time

Okay campers, rise, and shine, and don't forget your booties ‘cause it’s cold out there… it’s cold out there every day… On January 13th, the summit of Mount Washington in New Hampshire reported a temperature of minus 78 Celsius (minus 108 Fahrenheit), establishing a new record for the whole of the United States. Now that Christmas is long over, along with the winter break and generally the entirety of January, people start to wonder: how long until the sun comes out for more than merely two days?

The answer could perhaps be found in the weather forecast, carefully constructed by meteorologists. However, there is another far more interesting solution. February brings us the opportunity to hear the opinion of the real expert - an overweight rodent. 

The world’s most famous groundhog is called Phil, who weights about 20 pounds and every February 2nd - witnessed by masses of royal fans in Punxsutawney, Philadelphia - predicts just how much of winter is left. Last week Phil saw his shadow, this way foretelling six more weeks of cold weather. 

The idea of Groundhog Day, which is the exact name of the peculiar tradition described above, is rooted in the German celebration called Dachstag - Badger Day, on the day of Candlemas. The pagan tradition occurs on the same day as Imbolc, one of the four days which mark midpoints between solstice and equinox in the Celtic culture. On Dachstag, if the day was sunny enough, the badger cast his shadow after leaving the den - this meant four more wintery weeks. Sonnt sich der Dachs in der Lichtmeßwoche, so geht er auf vier Wochen wieder zu Loche, translates from German to "If the badger sunbathes during Candlemas-week, for four more weeks he will be back in his hole". Regionally the weather prognosticator was a bear, hedgehog or a fox.

The availability of animals plays a crucial role: in Alaska, February 2nd is known as Marmot Day, simply because the population of groundhogs is too low. 

On the other hand, Serbia celebrates Sretenje, which translates to ‘the Meeting Of The Lord’. On this day, mečka Božana leaves her cave after the winter hibernation, just like the Pennsylvania woodchuck. Mečka Božana is the mythical sow bear Božana, a pagan goddess. According to the legend, if the sow bear notices her shadow, she will get frightened and run back to her cave, meaning the winter will continue. If she does not return to her cave, she will begin the search for food instead, and so the winter will end.

Nowadays, the sow bear of the Belgrade Zoo is chosen to make the forecast, even though she is held in captivity. Hence not the most reliable source.

A similar belief is also observed in Scottish folklore. Beira - a divine old woman is said to be the Queen of Winter and the reason behind snow. Stories say she created mountains while walking across the land of Scotland by accidentally dropping stones from her basket. Known as the fighter of spring, she is responsible for the freezing of the ground. Cailleach, which is another one of her names (meaning ‘the veiled one’), gathers her firewood on the first day of February. When the weather on that day is clear and sunny, the Queen of Winter intends to have a long winter - this is the perfect time for her to collect the wood. If the day is gloomy, though, Cailleach is still asleep and her firewood supply will not last her long, so winter is almost over. 

Not considering how impossible it sounds, the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club claims that since 1886 there has been only one Phil. Assuming that was true, the woodchuck would have roughly 136 years of life experience. In order to sustain his youthful looks, he is given an elixir of life every year during the summertime Groundhog Picnic. It is supposed to up his lifetime by seven more years. Such longevity is unheard of: woodchucks live up to six years in the wild and up to fourteen in captivity, according to PBS’ Nature. 

Maybe the secret to keeping a youthful spirit lies not in the potions consumed, but rather in the choice of life partner(s). On the 364 days of the year when he is out of work, Phil is accompanied by his wife Phyliss. Even though her companion, Phyliss is not treated as kindly and does not receive the cure for mortality: it remains then unknown how many Phylisses exactly were there over the years. 

Phil is about 39% accurate. His score seems rather measly compared to his most popular competitor’s. The Staten Island woodchuck Chuck has been correct around 80% of the time over the last 13 years according to the President of the Staten Island Zoo Board of Trustees. Sadly, this year he also saw his shadow. It seems like no matter which woodchuck we turn to, there is no chance of an early spring. 

To keep some healthy distance from the winter gloom, a screening of Groundhog Day is recommended. The comedy starring Bill Murray and Andie McDowell is a story of a man who keeps reliving the same day over and over again. It’s a pleasant watch with an important message: the only time we have is the present. To quote Phil Connors, played by Bill Murray, what if there is no tomorrow? There wasn't one today.